The Breakup (updated-winner's info at this post's end )

(by Robin--though this should be obvious to anyone who knows her)

As I have already mentioned in an earlier post, the breakup is just another name for spring here in Fairbanks. It refers, of course, to the breakup of the rivers, but also the breakup of snow-turned-ice all around. The most storied river breakup in Alaska is on the Nenana river. It isn't because it is the longest river (that is the Yukon) or the most spectacular, but because people gamble on when it will happen and have been doing so since 1917.  It's called the Nenana Ice Classic.  It's a thing. A very cute thing.



They set a "tripod" on the river (though now it actually has multiple legs) with a line attached to a clock.  When the line moves enough to stop a lever on the clock, we have the winner.  Below is a photo of the tripod (on the left, in the middle of what is a snow-covered river.)  The photo was taken by my friend Valerie as she rode by on the Fairbanks-to-Anchorage train. Thanks, Val.

Bets are $2.50/guess and the winnings are divided among the people who get the exact date and minute that marks the beginning of the break-up. They take it quite seriously here.  For instance, they annually publish a huge 4" book called "List of Guesses", which notes the name and guess of every single person who enters in chronological order. 

Photo stolen from this guy: http://wattsupinthetundra.blogspot.com/2011/09/nenana-alaska.html

Here is a chart of all the winning guesses (click on the map to see the times more clearly or go to their website to make it much more clear.)

Weather is way more important to people up here than "outside"—as they refer to virtually everyone else in the world, and certainly everybody else in the lower 48.  There are no roads to hundreds of small communities in Alaska. To get there, one uses a plane, a boat, a snow machine or dog mushing. During break-up, many communities are cut-off from all but planes because the rivers are no longer passable by snow machine or dog mushing and not yet open for boats.  The breakup really affects a lot of people's lives in a very practical way in lots of small communities. 

The winter is so long in the interior and the coming of summer is so exciting.  The Tenana Ice Classic gives a way to focus on the changes to come.  It's sort of like Groundhog Day, but real.

The break-ups have ranged from April 20th to May 20th, but on average it is in early May. There is a great debate whether there is a trend to earlier break-up with the usual players taking the usual positions.  Actually, the trend is fairly clear, I think.  You can be the judge. 

 
There are all sorts of factors that play into why it breaks up when it breaks up, but let me quote from this: The most important climate factor that determines breakup is April-May SAT (surface air temperatures).


As the above paper explains (but I will spare you), La Nina and El Nino events are associated with surface air temperature.  During El Nino years, the break-ups tend to come earlier (1940 and 1998, which had the very early breakups, were both during strong El Ninos).  During La Nina years, the reverse tends to occur.

This is a La Nina year, but it is breaking up right now.  (The recent rains in California show that La Nina doesn't have the hold it did during late fall and winter when draught conditions prevailed.)  The long range temperature forecast for southern Alaska is for a colder than average spring.  Nenana—near Fairbanks—is right on the line, so that is sort of a toss-up.  The temperatures in Fairbanks (and interior Alaska in general) have been on a wild roller coaster this year, as the graph below shows:

Taken from this fun website:http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/

March continued to be colder than normal until the 22nd and now has been on a swing of much warmer than normal.  Will that continue and lead to early break-up?  Or will winter strike again? Put your money down and make a guess.  Contact us and we will put your guess in so you, too, can have a stake in following our weather!  Bets must be in by April 5th.

Update May 3:  And we have a well-deserved winner.  He has won twice before and been within a minute six more times.  How?  It's called math and science.  While luck plays a role, of course, it is his hard work and scientific knowledge that really carried the day.  (And his willingness to put $5,000 down so luck was reduced as a factor).  He actually won on his birthday but, being a true scientist, he worried that factor was influencing his pick!  Gotta love that.  Gotta love science.